Thursday, March 19, 2009

AIG and S&P's First Negative Earnings Quarter, Ever

For those of you who don't know, S&P publishes a free and constantly updated earnings forecast here. Essential reading for every investor. In addition to reporting the numbers, you get an 8-quarter forecast of earnings as well as unvarnished commentary from their house analyst.

Here's a snapshot of the current (3/18) report: image  

The S&P as a whole lost money in Q4 2008. In their commentary, S&P points out:

  • AIGs record setting Q4,'08 As Reported loss of $-61.7B; -$22.95 per AIG share, $-7.10 index impact (first negative quarter for index ever)
  • 28%, 138 of the 486 As Reported EPS are negative; index lost more this quarter than it ever made
  • 49 issues with mega-$billon losses
  • AIG Operating loss of $-28.2B (record); $-10.49 per AIG share, $-3.24 index impact (first negative quarter for index ever)
  • 20%, 99 of 494 Operating EPS are negative
  • 18 issues with mega-$billon losses
  • $-5.2B loss for the quarter, with $-101.3B from the Financials; Non-Financials therefore positive
  • Sales (based on reported current membership) are down -8.78%; 42% higher Y/Y (avg +6.64%), 58% lower (avg -18.12%)
  • Massive charges warp P/Es (field H33), forward numbers more important - but many investors have a lack of trust in the estimates
  • Cash flow now high priority, dividend cuts to 'preserve cash', ride out the storm->companies are worried (so am I)
  • No major shift in estimates yet as stimulus/ TARP/ housing/ budget details come out

All I can say is 'Wow".

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