Computer Science Graduate Statistics

I really like the idea of tracking key stats as part of our investment club activities. Following our discussion last Monday, I took a quick look at graduating CS degree numbers. They tell a vivid, if unsurprising, story.

Here's the big picture from NSF and CRA (Computing Research Association) numbers:

(From http://www.cra.org/info/education/us/index.html)

There are huge peaks around 1986 and 2003, coinciding with 4 years after the birth of the PC and the .com boom respectively. Presumably, entering freshman decide their majors based on current economic and technological events. Unfortunately, the picture may be different 4 years later.

The CRA also surveys the number of incoming CS majors, which of course is a leading indicator for how many graduates there will be 4 years later:

(From http://www.cra.org/CRN/articles/may08/taulbee.html)

These are absolute totals from a subset of schools, but they do show a corresponding huge 2x drop in enrolments in 2005-2007. This means that we can expect a low in the number of graduating CS engineers starting in 2009.

Since the swings are so huge (2x), it's tempting to make broad generalizations, such as the need to relax immigration limits or face increased outsourcing of engineering work. Presumably, it will also lead to increased price premiums for domestic talent, which is good for those already in the profession. :)